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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
June 2023
Capesize spot rates hesitant despite 5% rise in demand
During the first five months of 2023, demand for Capesize ships increased 5% y/y while supply increased 3% y/y. Nonetheless, spot rate increases remain hesitant, largely due to concerns over China’s fragile economic recovery.
May 2023
Container spot rates 32% up on 2019 despite weaker supply/demand balance
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and the China Containerized Freight Index have dropped by respectively 81% and 72% since January last year. Yet they remain higher than in 2019 despite a worsening supply/demand balance.
Over 15,000 ships could be recycled by 2032, up more than 100% on the last 10 years
Over the next ten years, from 2023 to 2032, more than 15,000 ships with deadweight capacity of more than 600 million tonnes are expected to be recycled, more than twice the amount recycled in the previous ten years.
Brazil’s 2023 maize exports could rise 8%, benefitting shipping
Brazil remains on track for a record maize harvest this year, and exports could rise 8% in 2023. Brazil could thereby become the world’s largest maize exporter this year, which would partially offset weaker harvests in the US, Argentina, and Ukraine, and benefit panamax and supramax ships.
Liner supply falls as operators reduce average sailing speed by 4%
During the COVID-19 pandemic, liner operators increased the average sailing speed by up to 4% due to strong demand and widespread port congestion. Today, the situation is very different and in the first quarter of 2023 the average sailing speed has slowed to 13.8 knots, down 4% y/y, and could drop by 10% before 2025.
April 2023
Indonesian coal exports surge 32% on strong Asia demand
Indonesian seaborne coal exports are expected to surpass 170 million tonnes by the end of April, up 32% on the same period last year. The rise is partly due to improved economic conditions in China and an increase in energy demand as a result.
Secondhand crude tankers reach highest values in 15 years
Secondhand crude tanker values for five-year-old ships hit bottom levels in late 2020 and have since increased by an average 67%. Over the past twelve eventful months values have risen by 34%, reaching their highest level in 15 years.
Record high container order book of 7.54 million TEU signals significant change
Despite the collapse in freight rates, shipowners still have an appetite for new container ship orders and the order book has continued to grow. The record high order book of 7.54 million TEU will result in significant changes to the container fleet in the coming years.
Capesize second-hand prices surge 22% m/m as rates rebound
In March 2023 China’s economic recovery caused a pick-up in capesize freight rates and in sale and purchase activity for this ship type. As a result, five-year-old second-hand prices rallied 22% m/m, reaching USD 54 million by the end of the month.
March 2023
Japan’s dry bulk imports fall 4% amid weak steel demand
Having narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Japanese economy appears to be recovering. However, Japan’s demand for steel remains weak and as a result, the country’s bulk imports are estimated to have fallen by 4% y/y in the first quarter of 2023.
