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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
During the first 10 months of 2024, coal shipments to advanced economies fell 6% y/y. Import demand weakened, particularly in Europe, where it fell 22% y/y as countries continued to decarbonise their electricity generation. At this rate, shipments to advanced economies will reach a 15-year low in 2024.
November 2024
Coal shipments to advanced economies heading for a 15-year low
During the first 10 months of 2024, coal shipments to advanced economies fell 6% y/y. Import demand weakened, particularly in Europe, where it fell 22% y/y as countries continued to decarbonise their electricity generation. At this rate, shipments to advanced economies will reach a 15-year low in 2024.
Container ship deliveries hit new record of 2.5 million TEU
Just ten months into 2024, shipyards’ deliveries of container ships have reached a new annual record. A total of 410 ships with a capacity of 2.5m TEU have been delivered, surpassing the previous full year high of 2.3m TEU in 2023.
October 2024
Attacks on ships in Ukraine threaten 1% of dry bulk market
Since September 2024, five merchant ships have been hit by Russian missiles while in Ukrainian ports or waters. These were the first attacks on merchant ships since November 2023 and they could threaten 1% of the world’s dry bulk exports if safety is not improved. The price of war risk insurance has already increased but the impact on exported volumes has so far been limited.
Jet fuel shipments up 11% as airline traffic now exceeds pre-COVID levels
During the first nine months of 2024, seaborne shipments of jet fuel increased 11% over 2023. Shipments were equivalent to 461 million barrels or 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). At the same time, airline passenger traffic measured in Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) exceeded 2019 levels for the first time since COVID.
Guyana’s oil exports jump 58%
Year-to-date, Guyana’s oil exports have jumped to 598 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), a 58% year-on-year increase, adding to the growth achieved in previous years. Over the past three years, the average annual growth rate has hit 76%.
Container spot rates drop 43% in Q3, worst development in non-COVID year
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell another 10% in week 39. In total, the SCFI has dropped 43% during the third quarter, the largest Q3 drop in a year not affected by the COVID pandemic (2020-2023) since the SCFI was launched in October 2009.
September 2024
Strong dry bulk market fuels 42% drop in ship recycling
Between January and August 2024, the number of recycled ships has dropped 42% y/y, the second lowest level in 16 years. The market has seen high freight rates and strong demand, delaying the recycling of older ships. On the supply side, the fleet has continued to grow slowly, limiting fleet renewal.
Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports up 6% despite economic challenges
Between January and August 2024, Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports rose 6% y/y, defying concerns over China’s domestic demand, its real estate crisis and producer price deflation. A combination of inventory build-up and commodity specific developments have contributed to strong import demand.
Coal shipments to India jump 10%, but growth could slow
Between January and August 2024, coal shipments to India rose 10% y/y, outpacing an 8% y/y increase in domestic coal mining. Thermal coal shipments were a key driver, supported by strong electricity demand and coal import mandates. During the rest of 2024, growth may slow as demand cools.
August 2024
Container ship contracting spree now exceeds 10 million TEU
When only six ships with a capacity of 4,746 TEU were contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023, many might have thought that the container ship contracting spree that began in 2021 had finally cooled. However, the appetite for new ships remains high and year-to-date contracting already exceeds the 2023 full year total. That brings the total capacity contracted since the start of 2021 to 10.47m TEU.
