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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
September 2024
Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports up 6% despite economic challenges
Between January and August 2024, Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports rose 6% y/y, defying concerns over China’s domestic demand, its real estate crisis and producer price deflation. A combination of inventory build-up and commodity specific developments have contributed to strong import demand.
Coal shipments to India jump 10%, but growth could slow
Between January and August 2024, coal shipments to India rose 10% y/y, outpacing an 8% y/y increase in domestic coal mining. Thermal coal shipments were a key driver, supported by strong electricity demand and coal import mandates. During the rest of 2024, growth may slow as demand cools.
August 2024
Container ship contracting spree now exceeds 10 million TEU
When only six ships with a capacity of 4,746 TEU were contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023, many might have thought that the container ship contracting spree that began in 2021 had finally cooled. However, the appetite for new ships remains high and year-to-date contracting already exceeds the 2023 full year total. That brings the total capacity contracted since the start of 2021 to 10.47m TEU.
Product tanker contracting hits 18-year high after 17% rise y/y
During the first seven months of this year, 194 product tankers larger than 10k deadweight tonnes (DWT) have been contracted with a combined capacity of 13.3m DWT. This is a 17% increase compared to last year and the highest level of contracting since 2006.
US grain exports seen rising 12%, but sailing distances could shorten
In 2024, grain exports from the US are expected to rise 12% from 2023, driven by a rebound in maize shipments. During the first seven months of 2024, shipments have risen 6% y/y and are expected to further ramp up after the upcoming maize and soya bean harvests in September. Water levels in the Mississippi River are at normal levels which should facilitate the transport of the harvests to seaports.
India now depends on Russia for 40% of its crude oil imports
During the past three months, India has relied on Russia for 40% of its seaborne crude oil import. Year-to-date, volumes have reached an average of 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), an increase of 1000% compared to 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine.
July 2024
Container ship fleet expands by 11%, fastest growth in 15 years
Since the beginning of the year, the capacity of the container ship fleet has increased by 1.6m TEU. Compared to one year ago, the capacity has risen 11% to 29.5m TEU, the fastest fleet growth in 15 years.
Dry bulk newbuild contracting fell 34.2%, despite a strong market
During the first half of 2024, newbuild contracting in the dry bulk sector fell 34.2% y/y despite favourable market conditions. A 6.5% y/y increase in prices could be deterring contracting, yet in the second-hand market, where prices rose 15.2% y/y, the number of sales still increased 11.7% y/y. Other factors, such as limited shipyard availability and uncertainty on fuels and demand outlook could be contributing to this hesitation.
June 2024
Newbuilding prices climb 3% to highest level in 16 years
Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2020 they are up 53%. During the same period, the order book has grown by 72%, reaching its highest level since early 2012 and is up 2% year-to-date.
Charter owners’ share of fleet has fallen to 40%, lowest since 2002
The charter owners’ container fleet has grown at an average annual rate of 3.2% for the past twelve years and currently stands at 11.7m TEU. The operator owners’ fleet has however grown faster, so the charter owners’ fleet now makes up only 40% of total container fleet capacity, down from 50% in 2012.
