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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
March 2024
Ships above 12,000 TEU drive 100% increase in average ship size
Since 2006, the average container ship has doubled in size to 4,580 TEU and ships with a capacity of more than 12,000 TEU has accounted for 51% of the fleet’s capacity expansion. Today, just 626 ships provide 36% of the fleet’s capacity, and the trend is set to continue as the large ships dominate the order book.
Crude tanker newbuild contracting jumps 490% as VLCC orders gain pace
In the first two months of 2024, crude tanker newbuild contracting surged to 7.4 m DWT, a 490% leap y/y, due to a rise in orders for very large crude carriers – VLCCs. A notable 19 VLCCs were ordered, already surpassing the number of orders for this ship type during all of 2023.
February 2024
Cargo volumes in Red Sea area drop 21% due to attacks on ships
During the first seven weeks of 2024, cargo volumes to and from ports in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea declined 21% y/y. The number of ships arriving in these ports significantly declined as merchant shipping increasingly avoided transiting through the region due to concerns over attacks on ships by the Houthis.
Russian coal shipments fall 14% as sanctions bite
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistical challenges started to emerge. Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia are limiting the country’s ability to export coal.
Oil production and Chinese buying boost Brazil’s crude tanker exports 19%
The reshaping of global crude tanker markets continued in 2023. In 2022, sanctions shifted Russia’s exports from Europe to Asia while OPEC production cuts in 2023 increased the Americas’ share of exports. Brazil’s oil production increased by 12% year-on-year in 2023 while crude tanker exports rose 19%.
Container market grows a modest 0.2% y/y in 2023 as the fleet swells
In 2023, the container market grew 0.2% year-on-year, ending at 173.8 million TEU. Compared to 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, the market grew 1.5%. Container market growth has lagged behind overall economic development significantly, as the world economy has grown 10% since 2019.
January 2024
Dry bulk watches Evergrande liquidation after 16.5% drop in real estate investment
China’s property market is estimated to account for approximately 35% of the country’s steel demand. It is an important driver for economic growth and raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, wood, and cement. Overall, the Chinese economy is a significant driver of dry bulk and more than 35% of dry bulk volumes are destined for China.
Product tanker recycling drops 82% year-on-year to lowest on record
In 2023, only seven product tankers with combined deadweight tonnes (DWT) capacity of 265,000 were recycled. This was a year-on-year drop of 82% compared to 1.5 million DWT (27 product tankers) recycled in 2022. It was also the lowest level of recycling seen since records began in 1996.
Record deliveries could push container fleet above 30 million TEU in 2024
In 2023, shipyards delivered 350 new container ships with a total capacity of 2.2 million TEU, beating the previous record from 2015 when 1.7 million TEU was delivered. The 2023 record is now likely to be beaten already in 2024.
Argentina’s grain exports could jump 40% due to favourable weather
Argentina is on track to boost grain exports by 40% in 2024, recovering from last year’s drought which afflicted crops, but still below the 2019-2022 average. Climate patterns and government policy are shaping the outlook.
