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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Over the past three months, dry bulk newbuilding contracting has been 70% below the yearly average. Declining freight rates in recent months, a cloudy outlook and high newbuilding prices contributed to the slowdown, and contracting in 2024 will likely fall short of 2023 levels.
May 2022
India’s coal import decision to reverse 10% YTD drop and add tonne miles
In a notice released on 5 May 2022, India’s Ministry of Power instructed all power plants to increase their imports of coal. Specifically, the Ministry demands that power plants designed to run on domestic coal start importing at least 10% of their requirements.
March retail volumes at 0.0% m/m as EU retail trade stagnates
As European Union retail trade stagnates, the question for the Far East to Europe container trade will be whether consumers will buy less or cheaper.
April 2022
Russia-China dirty tanker trade soars 94% y/y after Ukraine invasion
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and Russia is the second largest crude exporter. Much of the crude oil trade between the two countries, however, is piped and the short distance from Far East Russia to China also limits the impact on demand for crude oil tankers. Still, a change in the Russia to China dirty trade has the potential to impact tanker tonne miles demand as it could come at the expense of longer trade lanes.
China’s appetite for bauxite hits new record as Q1 imports jump 15.4% y/y
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and 2021, significantly outpacing all other commodities which combined grew at an average of just 4.3% per year. So far in 2022, the appetite for bauxite imports has remained high and the price of aluminium has reached its highest level in 14 years.
Container ship orderbook hits 6.5m TEU for the first time since 2008
The container ship orderbook hit a post-financial crisis low just below 2m TEU in October 2020. In the eighteen months since then, liner operators have seen record profits and a large percentage of these have been poured into newbuilding contracts.
March 2022
VLSFO premium of USD 200/tonne increases scrubber advantage
The spread between very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has widened following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The HSFO price, however, could rise if Russian volumes coming into the market start declining due to sanctions.
Indonesian coal exports jump 11.5% to second-highest level on record
Due to supply concerns at domestic power plants, Indonesian authorities banned coal exports during January 2022, removing around 30% of global coal volumes from the bulk market as a result. This caused Newcastle coal futures to increase by more than a third and added strain on coal inventories across Asia. The ban was lifted in February.
US appetite for Far East imports to face test as February retail sales fall 0.5%
During the pandemic retail sales and personal savings have been increasing in tandem and supported US consumer demand for imports from the Far East. Now, retail sales appear to be receding and the question is whether the past two years’ savings will be enough to support continued high import volumes as consumer sentiment is dropping and the war in Ukraine continues.
October 2021
Singapore’s September bunker sales fall to 15-month low
Bunker sales in the world’s largest bunkering hub fell to 3.94 million tonnes in September, the lowest level since June 2020 and a 6.7% drop from September 2020.
Us soya bean inspections nearly double week-on-week to 1.6m tonnes
After a slow start to the US soya bean export season, partly due to disruption from Hurricane Ida, US soya bean inspections ahead of exports have jumped to 1.6m tonnes in the week ending 7 October. This represents a 90.9% jump from the week before and is the highest level seen since the start of February 2021 which marked the end of the main export season of the 2020/2021 marketing year.
