We forecast dry bulk demand to grow by 2.5-3.5% in 2024 and stabilise at between -0.5% and 0.5% in 2025. Cargo volumes are expected to grow by 0.5-1.5% in both 2024 and in 2025. That is a positive upward revision of 0.5 percentage points for 2024 since our previous report, due to a strong first qua... Please follow the link to continue reading.
So far this year, container volume growth has developed more favourably than we predicted in our last report and we have also upped our growth forecast for the full year. We now forecast that container volumes will grow 5.0-6.0% in 2024 and 3.0-4.0% in 2025. Head-haul and regional trades are expect... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and there is no end to the conflict in sight. We therefore base our forecasts on the assumption that rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal towards the Cape of Good Hope may impact the market throughout 2024,... Please follow the link to continue reading.
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According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimates, the global economy should grow 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, slightly higher than the 3.0% estimated for 2023. China is forecast to continue to suffer from its ongoing real estate sector crisis, seeing growth slow from 5.2% in 20... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Houthis have continued to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. At the time of writing, 62 ships have been attacked and the ship capacity transitting the Suez Canal is 90% lower than last year. The combined volume via the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope is, however, on par with last... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that crude and product tanker supply will grow in line with fleet growth during both 2024 and 2025. Crude tanker supply is therefore estimated to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. Product tanker supply is predicted to grow 1.5-2.0% in 2024 and 4-5% in 2025. The crude tanker fle... Please follow the link to continue reading.
In our main forecast scenario, we assume that a solution to the crisis in Israel and Gaza may be found this year which could in turn also bring the Red Sea attacks to an end. The scenario therefore includes an expectation of a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings throughout 2025, whereas... Please follow the link to continue reading.
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