Simon is senior partner of Tatham & Co, a specialist shipping law firm based in the City of London. A particular focus of his practice relates to casualty work, otherwise known as Admiralty or “wet” law, typically handling incidents arising from salvage, collision, strandings, engine breakdowns and ... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast dry bulk demand to grow by 4.5-5.5% in 2024 and to fall 1-2% in 2025. Cargo volumes are expected to grow by 1.5-2.5% in 2024 and by 0-1% in 2025. For 2024, we have revised our estimates up 1 percentage point due to stronger than expected iron ore shipments to China during the second quar... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that crude tanker cargo volumes will grow 1.0-2.0% year-on-year in both 2024 and 2025. The average sailing distance is predicted to increase 7% in 2024 due to ships avoiding the Red Sea and the Suez Canal but fall approximately 5.5% in 2025 as we assume that ships may be able to return... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We have revised our assumption regarding when ships might return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings. In our previous report, we assumed that reroutings will only impact the first half of 2024. Since there are no signs of a resolution, we now work with a scenario assuming that all of 2024 will... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to severely impact trade lanes that normally transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Transits of the Suez Canal remain 90-95% lower than at the same time last year. Though no resolution is in sight, we have in our base scenario chosen to assume that s... Please follow the link to continue reading.
The disruption caused by ships being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope remains the key ship demand driver. As a result, ship demand is forecast to grow three times faster than cargo volumes in 2024. Without it, ship supply would have grown faster than ship demand but instead we expect that the sup... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that cargo volumes will grow 4-5% in 2024 and 3-4% in 2025. Volumes in head-haul trades are expected to grow slightly faster than the average. We have lowered our cargo volume growth forecast for 2024 by 1 percentage point as second quarter volumes for some back-haul trades disappointed... Please follow the link to continue reading.
The cutting of diplomatic ties with Qatar imposed by a number of Arab states with effect from 6 June 2017 has also impacted the operation of ships in the area due to the restrictions imposed.
An interview with BIMCO President Sabrina Chao about building a diverse and talented shipping industry
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